Study on the Demand for and Supply of Evaluation in Ethiopia

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This study investigates the conditions under which demand for evaluation is generated, the latent and potential demand for evaluation, the range and capacity of entities supplying evaluation services, and the areas in which supply can be strengthened to meet and foster this demand. This study has shown that there are currently active, latent and potential demands for evaluation in Ethiopia. The latent and potential demands are nested within the demands for evidence from principals and government agents in Ethiopia. The demand for evaluation is not driven, as often assumed, by Development Partners (DPs), but by the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) policy matrix which serves as Ethiopia’s evaluation policy framework.

The drivers for demand within the policy matrix are the five-year development plan and a global move forward on aid effectiveness as Ethiopia is an aid recipient economy. Every year there are Annual Progress Reports (APRs) on plan performance and every five years since 1990, a rigorous evaluation of the totality of government plans and policies takes place. Historically, the largest demand is embodied in requirements established by joint programmes or aid reporting demands specified by DPs. Recently, however, the shape of demand has evolved in a more systematic fashion and there are indications that the GoE is beginning to engage with the need for structured evaluations to guide interventions, budget allocation and policy. The GoE is planning to implement Results Based Management (RBM) with Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) as one of the pillars.

Supply unfolds in two ways. The first is the regular provision of annual performance monitoring reports, with limited efficacy and value for wider impact analysis. The second one focuses on periodical evaluation of government development plans based on household surveys2 . Outside of the formal system of government, supply is largely from DP-contracted suppliers for financially supported by DPs. Evaluative research is undertaken by some civil society organisations. However, the scale of evaluative research is constrained by the limited capacity within the government and the wider society. The higher education sector, specifically universities, have expanded over the past few years, but the focus has been on teaching and learning, with limited time and capacity available for evidence based research that could inform policy. A number of journals exist within the academic and professional community space, but the production of evaluation studies is very limited due to capacity constraints.

There are opportunities embedded in the emergent system that would facilitate the construction of a more robust and effective demand for, and supply of, evaluation within the government system. The GoE is committed to M&E by incorporating it in its five-year development and sectoral plans. The commitment is also reflected in the manner in which RBM is embraced. Furthermore, the GoE has high level strategy sector forums for policy dialogue and M&E with DPs. The commitment to enhance the capacity and mandate of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) is another reflection of commitment to M&E.

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STUDY ON THE DEMAND FOR AND
SUPPLY OF
EVALUATION IN ETHIOPIA





Centre for Learning on Evaluation and Results Anglophone Africa (CLEAR-AA)
Graduate School of Public and Development Management,
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Drafting team: Dr. Getnet Alemu (Country Consultant), Salim Latib (CLEAR-AA/Wits
Management Team: Stephen Porter, Osvaldo Feinstein, Salim Latib, Anne McLennan, David Rider Smith
Reference Group: Michael Bamberger, Derek Poate, Zenda Ofir, Robert Picciotto, Nidhi Khattri, Howard
White, Jessica Kitakule-Mukungu, Ian Goldman
December, 2013
Entire publication © Graduate School of Public and Development
Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
This report is an output funded by the UK Department for International
Development (DFID) as a public good. The views expressed are not necessarily
those of DFID.
i
STUDY ON THE DEMAND FOR AND SUPPLY OF
EVALUATION IN ETHIOPIA1

1
For further information on this study please contact CLEAR.AnglophoneAfrica@wits.ac.za. The content of this
study is the responsibility of the team alone, and should not be ascribed to the University of the
Witwatersrand, DFID, or any other organisation or individuals.
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................. III
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................... IV
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................1
1.2 METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................2
2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT.............................................................................................................................3
2.1 PLANNING, BUDGETING AND THE M&E FRAMEWORK..............................................................................................5
2.2 POLITICAL CONTEXT AND POLICY MAKING .............................................................................................................7
3. MAPPING OF EVALUATION IN ETHIOPIA......................................................................................................8
3.1 PRINCIPALS ......................................................................................................................................................9
The Political Executive...................................................................................................................................9
Civil Society..................................................................................................................................................10
Legislative structures...................................................................................................................................11
Development partners.................................................................................................................................11
3.2 GOVERNMENT AGENTS ....................................................................................................................................18
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development........................................................................................18
Line Ministries.............................................................................................................................................20
Central Statistics Agency.............................................................................................................................24
3.3 EVALUATION AGENTS.......................................................................................................................................26
Professional Suppliers .................................................................................................................................26
Independent Think Tanks and Research Institutions...................................................................................26
Universities..................................................................................................................................................28
Evaluators and Evaluation Association .......................................................................................................29
4. PATHWAYS, OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES........................................................................................29
4.1DEMAND........................................................................................................................................................30
4.2EVALUATION...................................................................................................................................................31
4.3PRODUCERS....................................................................................................................................................31
REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................................33
APPENDIX A: INTERVIEW LIST ........................................................................................................................36
Table, Figures and Boxes
TABLE 1: INTERVIEW RESPONDENT INSTITUTIONS ................................................................................................3
TABLE 2: TRENDS IN FOREIGN AID IN FINANCING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE (IN USD MILLIONS)...............................3
TABLE 3: GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES OF AID FLOWS RELATIVE TO ACTUAL DISBURSEMENT BY DONORS IN USD
MILLIONS ................................................................................................................................................................5
FIGURE 1: OVERALL EVALUATION SYSTEM (LINKED TO MONITORING).................................................................8
TABLE 4: SUMMARY OF JOINT DONOR- GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ...........................15
BOX 1: RESULTS BASED MANAGEMENT (RBM) ....................................................................................................20
BOX 2: PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROGRAMME..................................................................................................22
BOX 3: COMMUNITY BASED HEALTH INSURANCE (CBHI).....................................................................................23
iii
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AfDB African Development Bank IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
ADF African Development Fund JRIS Joint Review and Implementation
Supervision
AG Auditor General JSIR Joint Supervision and Implementation
Review
ADLI Agricultural Development-Led
Industrialisation
MoA Ministry of Agriculture
APRM African Peer Review Mechanism MoE Ministry of Education
APR Annual Progress Report MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development
AMP Aid Management Platform MoH Ministry of Health
BoFED Regional Bureau of Finance and
Economic Development
MoWE Ministry of Water and Energy
BPR Business Process Reenginering NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations
CSA Central Statistical Agency NOW Netherlands Organisation for Scientific
Research
DAG Development Assistance Group NCCP National Council for Central Planning
DFID Department for International
Development
NDRP National Democratic Revolution
Programme
DG Development Gateway NSDS National Statistical Development Strategy
DHS Demographic and Health Survey NSS National Statistical System
DP Development Partner ODA Official Development Assistance
DS Direct Support OFSP Other Food Security Programme
EDQAF Ethiopian Data Quality Assessment
Framework
ONCCP Office of National Committee for Central
Planning
EDHS Ethiopia Demographic and Health
Survey
PANE Network of Civil Society Organisations in
Ethiopia
EEA Ethiopian Economics Associations PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained
Development to End Poverty
EEvA Ethiopian Evaluation Association PBS Promotion of Basic Services
EDRI Ethiopian Development Research
Institute
PSNP Productive Safety Nets Programme
EMIS Education Management Information
System
PW Public Works
EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary
Democratic Front
RCT Resident Coordinator’s Office
FIC Federal Information Centre RBM Results Based Management
FSP Food Security Programme RICs Regional Information Centres
GQUIP General Education Quality
Improvement Programme
RRM Rapid Response Mechanism
GoE Government of Ethiopia SDPRP Sustainable Development and Poverty
GTP Growth and Transformation Plan Reduction Programme
2010/11 - 2014/2015
HABP Household Asset-Building
Programme
SLM Sustainable Land Management programme
HoF House of Federation UNCT UN Country Team
HPR House of Peoples’ Representatives UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance
Framework
HICES Household Income, Consumption
and Expenditure Survey
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
IDS Institute of Development Studies USAID United States Agency for International
Development
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural
Development
WaSH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
IAPT Inter-Agency Programming Team WB World Bank
IFMIS Integrated Financial Management
Information System
WMS Welfare Monitoring Survey
iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study investigates the conditions under which demand for evaluation is generated, the
latent and potential demand for evaluation, the range and capacity of entities supplying
evaluation services, and the areas in which supply can be strengthened to meet and foster
this demand. This study has shown that there are currently active, latent and potential
demands for evaluation in Ethiopia. The latent and potential demands are nested within the
demands for evidence from principals and government agents in Ethiopia. The demand for
evaluation is not driven, as often assumed, by Development Partners (DPs), but by the
Government of Ethiopia (GoE) policy matrix which serves as Ethiopia’s evaluation policy
framework.
The drivers for demand within the policy matrix are the five-year development plan and a
global move forward on aid effectiveness as Ethiopia is an aid recipient economy. Every year
there are Annual Progress Reports (APRs) on plan performance and every five years since
1990, a rigorous evaluation of the totality of government plans and policies takes place.
Historically, the largest demand is embodied in requirements established by joint
programmes or aid reporting demands specified by DPs. Recently, however, the shape of
demand has evolved in a more systematic fashion and there are indications that the GoE is
beginning to engage with the need for structured evaluations to guide interventions, budget
allocation and policy. The GoE is planning to implement Results Based Management (RBM)
with Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) as one of the pillars.
Supply unfolds in two ways. The first is the regular provision of annual performance
monitoring reports, with limited efficacy and value for wider impact analysis. The second
one focuses on periodical evaluation of government development plans based on household
surveys2
. Outside of the formal system of government, supply is largely from DP-contracted
suppliers for financially supported by DPs. Evaluative research is undertaken by some civil
society organisations. However, the scale of evaluative research is constrained by the
limited capacity within the government and the wider society. The higher education sector,
specifically universities, have expanded over the past few years, but the focus has been on
teaching and learning, with limited time and capacity available for evidence based research
that could inform policy. A number of journals exist within the academic and professional
community space, but the production of evaluation studies is very limited due to capacity
constraints.
There are opportunities embedded in the emergent system that would facilitate the
construction of a more robust and effective demand for, and supply of, evaluation within
the government system. The GoE is committed to M&E by incorporating it in its five-year
development and sectoral plans. The commitment is also reflected in the manner in which
RBM is embraced. Furthermore, the GoE has high level strategy sector forums for policy

2
The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) undertakes periodic surveys such as Household Income Consumption and Expenditure
Survey (HICES), Welfare Monitoring Survey (WMS), and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) which are used for overall
development and poverty analysis and sometimes sectoral evaluations such as health.
v
dialogue and M&E with DPs. The commitment to enhance the capacity and mandate of the
Central Statistical Agency (CSA) is another reflection of commitment to M&E.
1
1. INTRODUCTION
1. This study on the demand for, and supply of, evaluation and related policy relevant
evidence based research in Ethiopia, presents the mapping the parties involved in
evaluation practice in the country namely, the principals (demand), government agents
(commissioners) and evaluation agents (supply). As a continuation of the Paris
Declaration on aid effectiveness, there is a growing concern from DPs for results based
aid and Ethiopia, as an aid recipient economy, is trying to adjust to this. The country is
now assessing its capacity for RBM in order to develop RBM strategy and action plans.
The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) is leading this activity with
M&E as one of the major pillars. It is hoped that MoFED and other national stakeholders
will use this study to better structure their M&E activity. The study identifies latent,
potential and actual demand, the conditions under which demand is generated and
potential sources of supply. The Regional Centre for Learning on Evaluation and Results
for Anglophone Africa (CLEAR-AA) 3
conducted this study in Ethiopia for the UK
Department for International Development (DFID) as one of a set of cases covering five
countries4
. The fieldwork for this study took place between the 12th and 17th May and
the 3
rd and 12th July 2013.
2. This study refers to evaluation as covering both evaluation and evaluative research and
therefore uses the terms interchangeably. The primary objectives of the study are to
explore:
1) The conditions under which demand is generated for evaluation evidence; and
2) The areas in which evaluation supply can be strengthened to meet and foster this
demand.
The guiding questions that interface with these objectives are:
(i) On the demand side:
a) What has been the actual demand for evaluation from principals?
b) Where is there latent and potential demand for evaluation?
c) How is evaluation demanded in the current organisational arrangements?
(ii) On the supply side:
a) What is the range and capacity of entities supplying evaluation services?
b) How relevant are the managers and producers of evaluation to the actual
demand for evaluation?
(i) On matching evaluation supply and demand:
c) Where can evaluation supply (actual, latent and potential) be
strengthened so that it meets and fosters demand?
3. The analysed elements of demand and supply of evaluation within the system reveal
that the foundations of a substantive and coordinated approach to evaluation for policymaking
are in place and present an opportunity for the future of evidence based policy
construction. However, embedded within the system are challenges that relate to the

3
CLEAR-AA is based at the Graduate School of Public and Development Management at the University of Witwatersrand in
Johannesburg, South Africa.
4
The other case study countries are Ghana, Malawi, Rwanda, and Zambia.
2
country’s difficult history and sensitivities relating to external influences on the policy
prerogatives of the GoE (Tafesse, 2004). This study explores three specific policy areas
further understand the connections, if any, between public policy and evaluation, and
construct a perspective on the opportunities available to bridge the gaps. We briefly
review the evaluation and policy connections in the Productive Safety Net Programme
(PSNP), Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI), and RBM to ensure coverage of
different policy terrains and areas of evaluation. In each case, we look at the
connections as they relate to the challenges and opportunities for evaluation based
research in Ethiopia.
1.2 Methodology
4. The study has been constructed on the basis of a desk review of available literature,
government and DPs’ publications. It also includes a series of key informant interviews
conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (See Table 1 and Appendix 1 for details) with key
stakeholders involved in evaluation practice in the country namely, government
institutions, civil society, and DPs. The methodology embraced the following overlapping
stages:
(i) Establishing study commitment and support from key stakeholders: the
demand for and supply of evaluation and management of evaluation involves
different stakeholders. In this context the initial task of the study was to identify
relevant stakeholders and bring them on board in the process. Letters, including
the inception report, were sent to different stakeholders such as government
institutions, civil society, and DPs for permission and cooperation for the study.
(ii) Desk review and collating and analysing secondary data: As the study is directed
at building an understanding of the overall national level evaluation demand and
supply system, reliance was placed on literature on the demand, supply and
management of M&E and policy documents, regulations, guidelines in relation to
M&E system, statistics and overall economy management was collected and
analysed. Whilst active attempts were made to access collated information on
the size and scope of evaluation initiatives within government, and actual
evaluation capacity related data, it was not always possible, within this study, to
collate dispersed data amongst stakeholders active in the evaluation space.
(iii) Conducting key informant interview: A series of interviews with major
stakeholders that are active in the demand for and supply of the evaluation
system was conducted in two different times in May and July 2013. The checklist
was prepared based on the literature review. Issues related to the overall
national level evaluation demand and supply system, how demand is generated,
the ability of supply to invoke demand and management of evaluation were
explored through key informant interview. Information collected through this
process was analysed during the fieldwork and post fieldwork.
5. Following this introduction the rest of this study is structured as follows. The second
section deals with the Ethiopian development context in relation to present features,
future direction and evaluation. Section 3 maps the state of the current evaluation
demand and supply system while Section 4 suggests the pathways to improve the
national evaluation system and context.
3
Table 1: Interview Respondent Institutions
Government agents Evaluation Community Principals
Ministry of Finance and
Economic Development
Ethiopian Economic Policy
Research Institute of the
Ethiopian Economic Association
Civil society-Poverty Action
Network of Ethiopia
Ministry of Water and
Energy
International Food Policy
Research Institute
Development partners
(DFID, UNDP, AfDB, UNICEF,
and WB)
Ministry of Agriculture Ethiopian Evaluation
Association
Abt Associates (Health Care
Financing Reform
implementers)
Central Statistics Agency Faculty of Business and
Economics of Addis Ababa
University
Source: Compiled by Authors
2. DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
6. For the last eight consecutive years (since 2004/05), Ethiopia’s economy has enjoyed
robust growth, driven primarily by the distribution and services sector. Real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 11.3%. Under the Growth and Transformation
Plan (GTP), a minimum growth rate of 11% is targeted, with a view to accelerating the
attainment of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and achieving Middle Income
Country (MIC) status by 2025. Agriculture comprised the largest share of GDP until this
was taken over by the distribution and services sector recently. Industry has very low
share in the GDP, which has never been more than 13%. The case for manufacturing is
even worse. Its share from GDP in 2011/12 was only 3.7%. As with many other subSaharan
African countries, the economy remains dependent on the export of primary
products.
7. The fiscal deficit declined from 2.9% of GDP in 2007/08 to 1.6% in 2010/11 due in part to
strong revenue mobilisation performance on account of enhanced tax administration
and tax reforms. The domestic revenue for 2011/12 fiscal year for Ethiopia was ETB
102.864 billion (USD 596 million) and expenditure of ETB 124.417 billion (USD 721
million). The overall budget deficit for the same year was USD 125 million which was
2.43 percent of GDP. This gap was financed by external assistance and loans. Table 2
provides this information.
Table 2: Trends in foreign aid in financing public expenditure (in USD millions)
Year Domestic
revenue
Total
expenditure Gap
External assistance and loan Average
exchange
rate
(USD/Birr)
External
assistance Loan
2008/9 385.6 554.5 168.8 138.7 32.3 10.42
2009/0 417.9 563.2 145.3 96.0 34.5 12.89
2010/1 428.8 582.8 154.0 102.3 52.3 16.12
2011/2 596.3 721.3 124.9 74.2 43.1 17.25
Source: MoFED, Macroeconomic Policy Management Directorate and National Economic Accounts Directorate (converted
by study authors into USD millions)
4
8. Government introduced a tax reform strategy in 2010 and this has resulted in significant
improvements in revenue collection. On the expenditure side, government has
implemented financial management reforms and the move towards programme-based
budgeting is on-going. In line with the state led strategy, the activities of state owned
enterprises have multiplied and substantively increased government expenditure.
9. The GoE is committed to reduce poverty and since 2002, it has implemented various
poverty reduction strategies. Spending is geared to pro poor sectors and as a result
Ethiopia has achieved significant gains in poverty reduction. The headcount poverty rate
fell from 38.7 % in 2004/05 to 29.6 % in 2010/11. The country has also achieved significant
gains in improving access to basic services. Ethiopia is on track to meet 5 MDGs (1, 2, 4,
6 and 8) and likely to meet the other 3 MDGs (3, 5 and 7). The infant mortality rate (per
1,000 live births) declined from 123 in 2004/05 to 88 in 2010/11. The number of health
posts also increased from 4,211 (2005) to 14,416 (2010) and health centres from 519
(2005) to 2,689 (2010). A total of 34,382 health extension workers were deployed in
rural areas in 2011 (85% of the target). Similarly, performance in improving primary
school enrolment in 2010/11 has been encouraging. Primary school enrolment rate is
85.3% in 2010/11. The completion rate of students at grade 8 is 49.4% in 2010/2011
(African Development Fund (ADF) 2012).
10. The human development indicator is, however, low when compared with other
developing countries. Ethiopia’s Human Development Index is 0.396, which means that
it is one of the least developed countries in the world, with a ranking of 173 out of 187
countries in 2011 (UNDP, 2013).
11. Ethiopia is ranked 116 out of 135 according to the Global Gender Gap Report (2011),
demonstrating progress in gender mainstreaming from 122 in 2009. This improvement
was boosted by an increase in the number of women in Parliament, which rose from
12% to 28% during this period. The GoE continues to show strong commitment in
ensuring that both men and women participate and benefit from development
processes as stipulated in the Constitution (Article 35), the National Gender Action Plan
and the GTP. In this regard, the government has mainstreamed gender into key sector
policies and has been implementing affirmative actions to achieve gender equality. All
sectoral ministries have gender directorates that promote gender mainstreaming (ADF,
2012).
12. It is difficult to establish in precise terms how much aid Ethiopia receives because
finance is also provided outside of official government channels, although some data is
contained in the GTP and reports generated from the Aid Management Platform (AMP).
Ethiopia has historically received a fairly low proportion of bilateral aid, and a higher
proportion of aid from multilateral sources. Net official development assistance (ODA)
to Ethiopia in 2009 totalled USD 3.8 billion, while ODA recorded at country level
amounted to USD 2.3 billion in 2009/10. The OECD Aid Effectiveness Country Study for
2011 is revealing on the scale of support and the wider gap between government
estimates and what donors disbursed, as reflected in the Table 3.
13. Like many other developing countries, Ethiopia continues to receive significant external
assistance outside of the formal framework of its assistance modalities. This is inclusive
of direct bilateral aid that does not go through its budget to support donor designed
5
projects, and new sources of off-budget aid from international non-governmental
organisations (NGOs).
Table 3: Government estimates of aid flows relative to actual disbursement by donors in
USD millions
Source Government Estimates Aid disbursement by donors
African Development
Bank
97 153
Austria 3 0
Canada 9 64
European Union 205 151
Finland 8 17
France 3 36
GAVI Alliance 38 17
Germany 50 23
Global Fund 76 305
Greece 0 1
IFAD 11 16
Ireland 32 34
Italy 9 38
Japan 3 47
Korea 2 0
Netherlands 7 0
Norway 2 7
Spain 0 9
Sweden 8 0
United Kingdom 138 188
United Nations 91 148
United States 4 380
World Bank 481 1097
Total 1277 2651
Source: OECD 2011, Aid Effectiveness 2005-2010; Country studies, Ethiopia, Volume II.
2.1 Planning, Budgeting and the M&E Framework
14. Having dismantled the centralised planning agency established by the military regime,
the Government set about establishing an alternative market oriented path that also
emphasised the development of the agricultural sector. To this end, the government
adopted Agricultural Development-Led Industrialisation (ADLI) as an overall
development strategy of Ethiopia. The focus of ADLI is to modernise the agriculture
sector, particularly peasant agriculture. Within the framework of ADLI, the government
has adopted a series of poverty reduction plans and programmes such as the
Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Programme (SDPRP) and the Plan for
Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP).
15. Currently, Ethiopia’s strategic development agenda is articulated in the GTP covering the
period 2010/11-2014/15. The GTP has as its overarching goal: sustaining the rapid,
broad-based and equitable economic growth path witnessed during the past several
years and significantly ending poverty. It is anchored on four main objectives: (i)
maintaining at least 11% average annual growth rate; (ii) expanding and ensuring quality
of education and health services and achieving the MDGs in the social sector; (iii)
establishing suitable conditions for sustainable nation-building through the creation of a
stable democratic and developmental state and; (iv) ensuring growth sustainability by
fostering a stable macro-economic framework. All these are designed in the context of
creating favourable conditions for the structural transformation of the economy.
6
16. The GoE has continued to pursue public sector reforms for effective and responsive
public service delivery in order to deepen transparency and accountability. In Public
Finance Management (PFM), the Government has since 2002 been implementing
reforms under the Expenditure Control Management Programme (EMCP) and the Public
Sector Capacity Building Programme (PSCAP), which are two of the five sub-programmes
of the Civil Service Reform Programme. Reforms under the EMCP have concentrated on:
(i) strengthening of PFM systems and processes, including medium-term programmebased
budgeting; (ii) budget execution; (iii) internal controls and audit; (iii) cash
management; (v) accounts reforms and; (vi) computerised financial management
information system (IBEX). As part of the Civil Service reforms programme, since 2005,
GoE did Business Process Re-engineering Reform at all tiers of government with the aim
of achieving effective and efficient public sector service delivery outcomes.
17. Decentralisation has been one of the cornerstones of GoE’s development agenda since
the early 1990s, and is rooted in the federal constitution. The instruments for
implementing decentralisation were defined in the 2004 Fiscal Decentralisation Strategy
with block grants as the main instrument. The first and second waves of decentralisation
were initiated in 1994 and 2002 respectively by devolving firstly, to the regional
governments and secondly, to the woreda (district) administration. Fiscal federalism is
an important facet of the decentralisation process in Ethiopia and is aimed at addressing
the vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances among the federal, regional and woreda
levels.
18. Central to the overall development strategy, especially as reflected in the current GTP, is
the idea of a developmental state to drive economic growth, to overcome poverty and
to achieve the MDGs. The firmness of conviction that Ethiopia is a developmental state
is reflected in the country’s response to the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM)
Panel Report (APRM, 2011:345) on Ethiopia and in the pages of the GTP. There is
recognition that the state should drive the growth process through active planning and
through targeted investments.
19. Planning and budgeting has a long history in Ethiopia. The country issued a 10-year
industrial programme in 1945 during the Imperial regime. Since 1957, comprehensive
five-year development plans have been put in place. Currently the country has the GTP
five-year development plan. MoFED issues planning and budgeting guidelines based on
the GTP to kick off the annual planning and budgeting process. This guideline articulates
likely budget ceilings; priority in resource allocation among different sectors; and
external loan and aid planning and budgeting. There has been a shift from line item
(input based) budgeting to programme (output based) budgeting (PB). MoFED issued
the PB manual in September 2010 for implementation at federal level in 2011/12.
MoFED issued the guideline in June 2012 for the budget preparation of 2012/13 fiscal
year. Despite this effort, it has not yet been implemented.
20. There are, however, result based financing pilots being implemented in some sectors
with DPs support. For instance, there is a results-based programme being piloted in the
education sector through DFID support. World Bank and the EU are finalising plans to
start a payment for results (P4R) initiative in the health sector. Some sectors have
adopted sector wide approaches to guide to achieve results (education, health, and
water for example). In some sectors, top-down and bottom-up planning process,
supported by a results based planning methodology - Marginal Budgeting for
7
Bottlenecks - has brought about a vertically (woreda-region-federal) and horizontally
(within the sector structures) aligned plan and budget. Although resource mapping and
financing gaps to meet ambitious targets remain the challenge, it is one step forward in
moving towards achieving results through a concerted and coordinated effort.
21. The budgets are also expected to be within the limits of what the economy can finance,
guided by the resource envelope. The Federal Government uses the Macroeconomic
Fiscal Framework (MEFF) to indicate expected resource mobilisation both from domestic
and external sources and the broad allocation of those resources to the key sectors. The
annual process also includes consideration of the allocation between federal and
regional governments, as well as between recurrent and capital spending.
22. Monitoring activities have a long history in Ethiopia. Under the Imperial regime, the
three five year plans (1957-1973) had monitoring activities. During the military regime
there was even stronger M&E undertakings (less impact evaluation). Organisationally,
there was a department named ‘Plan Follow Up’ within the Office of National
Committee for Central Planning (ONCCP). There is a serious and systematic effort to
strengthen the M&E system in the country. GoE and its DPs have been building an
overall M&E system since the early 1990s. The system is grounded in the GoE’s
development plans. Although the evaluation and evidence based feedback elements of
the system are less evident, in relation to monitoring, there is an articulated logic
between the plans and M&E. The first comprehensive national M&E framework aligned
with the country’s development plan was the SDPRP policy matrix (2002/03-2004/05).
This was followed by the PASDEP policy matrix (2005/06-2009/10). Currently, the GTP
policy matrix (2010/11-2014/15) guides the national M&E system.
23. The responsibility for evaluation of programmes within Government resides at the
federal level, under the coordinative role of the MoFED. The House of Peoples
Representatives also has various standing committees responsible for M&E. The same is
true in the nine regional states and two city administrations. Figure 1 captures the
overall flows and this is explained further in the analysis that follows.
2.2 Political Context and Policy Making
24. The exercise of policy authority by ruling elites is deeply engrained in the history and
culture of Ethiopia as a trend that is discernible despite regime change and revolutionary
transitions. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has
dominated the country’s political landscape since taking power in 1991. Since the
adoption of a new Constitution in 1995, the country has had three national elections.
There are two legislative chambers: the Council of Peoples’ Representatives and the
Council of Federations. The country has federal structure, nine regional states and two
city administrations.
8
Figure 1: Overall evaluation system (linked to monitoring)
25. Although the Constitution is premised on a strategy of devolution to regions, the
dominance of the ruling coalition, under the EPRDF, underpins strong uniformity in the
overall governance system (Smith, 2013). The EPRDF has established itself as the
custodian of the ‘developmental state’. In practice, the EPRDF-led government is
perceived as having restricted the democracy-enhancing role of non-governmental
organisations. Weak opposition parties have struggled to establish presence since the
2005 elections and the space for political engagements remains fairly constrained. The
election of 2010 resulted in a 99.6 percent victory for the ruling party and its allies,
reducing the opposition to only two of the 547 seats (USAID, 2011: 8).
26. During the initial period of reform under the new Constitution, the EPRDF and its allies
demonstrated a guarded openness on policy issues and to critical inputs from
stakeholders across society. This was a result of wider global momentum on
participatory approaches in the construction of Poverty Reduction Strategic Papers, as
introduced by the World Bank, amongst others. This openness to perspectives was also
assisted by the massive aid inflows and the fact that many DPs began to establish a
formal presence in Addis Ababa after the overthrow of the Dergue.
3. MAPPING OF EVALUATION IN ETHIOPIA
27. This section presents the mapping of evaluation for both supply and demand. In doing
this the following agents who may demand or supply evaluation are discussed: first,
principals; second government agents; and third evaluation agents. The descriptive
9
overview that follows seeks to provide a more detailed analysis of the actors involved
and their capacities for managing evaluations, conducting evaluations and using
evaluations. In so doing, we explore the role and efficacy of stakeholders that express a
demand for evaluation or have latent or potential demand capacity (legislative
structures, the political Executive, development partners and civil society). The areas of
demand are then followed by an analytical overview of those institutions that are
central to establishing a bridge between supply and demand (MoFED, line ministries and
the CSA). Embodied within the linking structures analysis is also the crucial role played
by coordinative bodies. The final part focuses on those stakeholders active in the supply
of evaluation (think tanks, universities and non-governmental evaluation organisations).
3.1 Principals
28. The analysis of principals includes development partners, Parliament, civil society and
the Executive. This group of stakeholders is placed together because they represent an
array of the most important political actors who use and demand evaluation distinctive
from government and the evaluation community.
The Political Executive
29. Demand within the political system is diffused and largely latent, embedded mostly
within planning practices and structurally defined responsibility areas. Engagement with
performance matters within M&E reports are matters of internal sensitivity. Demand
and supply within and amongst agents must, thus, be understood in the wider political
context and the constraints these place on political actors within the policy space. Of
particular significance is the strength of the ruling party and the manner in which its
practice of revolutionary democracy pervades information flows and interactions within
the governance system.
30. The GoE recently established the position of State Minister for M&E within the Office of
the Prime Minister. The role of this office, relative to the responsibilities entrusted to
MoFED, has not been formally defined (or at least is not widely known) and speculations
are that the office will serve as the formal channel for M&E reports on government
ministries. The momentum reflects a growing appetite for M&E and a willingness to
engage in evidence based policy processes. However, dialogue on the role of this office
is limited and all actors appear to be awaiting announcements on the precise role and
influence that such an office would have. In practice, the establishment of the office
and the appointment of a State Minister build on the GoE’s initial attempt to establish a
level of independent advice on policy impact. The establishment of such independent
capacity is explored further when looking at supply.
31. There is limited information on the functioning of the Council of Ministers and the
manner in which agendas are crafted, deliberations approached and decisions recorded.
It is considered the highest decision-making body in the execution of government
policies, but the extent of its influence remains outside general public and stakeholder
knowledge. Other than considerations of plans, budgets and progress reports, prior to
their presentation to the House of Peoples Representatives, the extent to which the
Council would have a direct interest in independent evaluations is unclear.
32. There is a reliance on information supplied by MoFED and Ministers’ need for evidence
on policy intervention emerges within sectorial engagement platforms. In practice, the
10
authority of the party and party linked structures within the policy space appear to take
precedence over independent evaluative perspectives (Gebremichael, 2011). At most,
Ministers are actively involved in the bi-annual and annual review meetings with DPs.
These engagements focus on matters of concern and perhaps serve as a basis for
developing evidence to support policy interventions.
33. Ministers’ appetite for evaluations is reflected in engagements with DPs. DPs indicate
that, when necessary, they are able to approach Ministers on the outcomes of
evaluation studies and on the conclusions for policy that can be derived from the
research. In such processes, there are indications that there is openness and interest
goes beyond standard monitoring. The Council of Ministers has expressed the desire to
improve MoFED reports to focus on policy and programme impact. MoFED is
considering the possibility of restructuring itself to make M&E a separate functional area
of work with dedicated capacity. Financial support has been secured from UNICEF and
other donors would contribute. In addition, a Federal Planning Commission is being
established and it is highly likely that M&E will be one of its eminent departments.
34. It is widely held by role players that evaluation conclusions that relate to areas that are
ideologically charged do not get addressed through the formally established structures.
Dialogue on these matters generally takes place in more informal, one-on-one,
discussions between a donor and government. There is a perception amongst donors
and external stakeholders that there is a tendency to reject conclusions from
evaluations that suggest changes in policy areas that are deemed legitimate within the
ruling party and the senior bureaucracy. Often cited examples are government
strategies in the telecommunication sector, the finance sector and expenditure on
higher education (see also Furtado and Smith 2009). Beyond the formalised structures
for decision-making within the Executive, the EPRDF and its Executive Committee play a
central role in setting the national policy agenda.
Civil Society
35. The role of civil society in demanding evaluations and in the provision of evaluative
evidence has evolved but more recently has been constrained by legislation relating to
the registration and funding of non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Before this
legislation, civil society organisations (CSOs) actively engaged in research initiatives,
including community based evaluative exercises. A typical example is the work of Action
Aid Ethiopia (AAE) and Poverty Action Network of Ethiopia (PANE).
36. Given the past history and focus on relief work, and more recent restrictions relating to
rights issues and advocacy work, civil society is at a low level in terms of its capacity to
play an advocacy role and engage in policy initiatives. Many are unable to engage on
matters related to the value or limits of government programmes as they are perceived
as either government supporters or opponents. Engaging in dialogue on the basis of
evidence is difficult given the ‘either you support us or you support them’ orientation
within the wider society.
37. Although the GoE recognises specific civil society structures and the established
Network of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and incorporates their voice within
established consultative structures on the GTP, the space for active engagement to
campaign for policy changes, based on independent research, is constrained by
regulatory provisions that prevent local civil society organisations from active advocacy
11
work if external funding exceeds 10% of their operational budgets. The capacity
constraints facing civil society in Ethiopia are, in part, a result of a history of scepticism
about their independence.
Legislative structures
38. The Ethiopian Parliament consists of two chambers, the House of Federation (HoF), and
the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HPR). Regional states and the two city
administrations have their own HPRs. In the main, the two chambers and regional
council structures are not a substantive source of demand for evaluations. In addition to
oversight capacity weaknesses amongst legislators, the ability to initiate and request
evaluative studies on initiatives and programmes, remains limited though improving.
39. In theory, the HPR has the power of legislation and the authority to question the prime
minister, ministers and other top officials of government agencies on policies,
programmes and resultant impact. A combination of a dominant ruling party within the
house, especially since the 2010 elections, and the lack of capacity, militates against the
exercise of oversight authority. The appetite and even the capacity to recognise the
value of independent research and evaluation for the exercise of oversight is low. There
are, however, indications that the Standing Committees of HPR are becoming
increasingly active (including field visits) and the frequency of engagement on
monitoring reports generated within government has increased. However, the
stakeholder perspective is that the understanding of evaluation and the relevance of
evidence for policy oversight purposes remains weak.
40. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ethiopia has been in the
forefront of providing capacity support for legislators and has in the past incorporated
training on M&E. This training centred on the introduction of results based management
and includes evidence based oversight of policies. However, few seem to be aware of
the value of impact evaluation as an exercise separate from monitoring data. Dialogue
on activities undertaken by government is, by all accounts, low. There is also very little
to suggest that MPs engage with evaluative studies conducted by government or DPs.
41. At present, the two houses of Parliament do not have substantive research capacity
within their own structures. They are poorly resourced and do not request additional
research support. Parliament receives MoFED and sector reports as well as reports from
the Office of the Auditor General (AG). These reports primarily focus on spending and
not on value for money issues. There is an emerging practice of performance audit and
some level of independent activism on the part of the Auditor General on the reports
generated and presented to Parliament. However, generally the trend has been on
exposing corruption and not much on the public value derived from allocated budgets.
Development partners
42. As Ethiopia is recipient to substantive aid, the role of DPs in the evaluation terrain
cannot be overstated. Given their own specific accountability needs, DPs have been
engaged in commissioning evaluative studies as a matter of procedure and practice for
many of their interventions and programmes. A broad sweep of recent evaluations
12
suggests that a number of studies are being done. Although evaluations are done
independently, there are efforts to coordinate these under the overall structure of the
Development Assistance Group (DAG). The DAG was established in 20015
to foster
information sharing, policy dialogue and harmonise donor support to Ethiopia in order
to enable the country to meet the targets set in the MDGs. DAG also assists in the
preparation, monitoring and evaluation of the country’s Poverty Reduction Strategy. An
M&E Technical Group has been established within this framework and facilitates ongoing
meetings of M&E officials within the partner community.
43. The efficacy and value of the M&E Technical Group for coordinative action remains
unclear, as there are different understandings of evaluation, relative to programme
review missions and monitoring related efforts. In addition, the group has not yet
approved its own ToR and has not produced an action plan. It is difficult to ascertain
whether this structure will influence or deepen the internal demand or supply for more
rigorous evaluations.
44. Many partners emphasise that sector or programme evaluations are commissioned in
close collaboration with Government and are shaped by the government needs. The
approach is to ensure that evaluations studies and related ToRs are approved within
Sector Working Groups. There are some established M&E working groups within or
across sectors. For example, in health, education, agriculture, etc. The system is fairly
elaborate, in that many specific initiatives, such as, One WaSH, PBS, PSNP, PSCAP,
General Education Quality Improvement Programme (GQUIP), and SLM have M&E
groups working modalities and M&E activities.
45. The UN agencies have a joint action plan to monitor UNDAF. This action plan defines the
roles and responsibilities of the Government, UN Country Team (UNCT), Pillar Technical
Working Groups (TWGs), Inter Agency Programming Team (IAPT), and M&E TWG (UN
Country Team 2012b: section 8). It is anticipated that the overall M&E activities in
UNDAF will be coordinated and implemented by MoFED and United Nations Country
Teams (UNCT). The UNDAF Pillar TWGs is co-chaired by the relevant line ministries and
representatives from the UN. In cases where there is more than one ministry under one
pillar, sub-groups will be established and co-chaired by the relevant ministry and UN
Agency. The Pillar TWG co-chairs will serve for a certain period of time by rotation and
all ministries will have the opportunity to co-chair the Pillar TWG (UN Country Team
2012b:27).
46. There are four Pillar TWGs as stated by the UN Country Team (2012b:27). Pillar 1
(Sustainable Economic Growth and Risk Reduction) will have Agriculture, Industry and
Environment subgroups co-chaired by Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Ministry of Industry

5
DAG comprises 26 donor agencies providing development assistance to Ethiopia within the Paris declaration
principles of aid effectiveness and harmonisation. DAG members are: African Development Bank (AfDB),
Austrian Development Cooperation, Belgium Development Cooperation, CIDA, Denmark Embassy, DFID,
European Commission, Finland Embassy, French Embassy, German Embassy, GTZ-Ethiopia, IMF, Indian
Embassy, Embassy of Ireland, Italian Cooperation, Japan Embassy, JICA, KfW, Netherlands Embassy, Norwegian
Embassy, Embassy of Sweden, Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation(AECID), Turkish
International Cooperation Agency (TICA), UNICEF, UNDP, USAID , WFP and World Bank.
13
(MoI) and Environmental Protection Authority respectively and UN Agencies. Co-chairs
for the remaining sub groups in Pillar 1 are to be determined. Pillar 2 (Basic Social
Services) will have Health, Education and Water and Sanitation subgroups co- chaired by
the Ministry of Health (MoH), Ministry of Education (MoE), Ministry of Water and Energy
(MoWE) respectively and relevant UN Agencies. Pillar 3 (Governance and Capacity
Development) will be co-chaired by MoFED and the relevant UN Agency. Pillar 4
(Women, Youth and Children) will be co-chaired by Ministry of Women, Children and
Youth and the relevant UN Agency. TWGs of each UNDAF pillar are ultimately
responsible for monitoring and reporting on results against baseline values to the IAPT
and RCO.
47. The 2011 OECD Aid Effectiveness Study (2011:15) reveals that of the 153 analytical
studies surveyed only 52% were coordinated with Government. The OECD study defines
analytical studies as the analysis and advice necessary to strengthen policy dialogue, and
to develop and implement country strategies. It includes country or sector studies and
strategies, country evaluations and discussion papers. The interviews suggest that the
level of engagement from Government on studies to be conducted depends on the
assigned individual’s motivation. There is little to suggest that Government would have
an active and anticipatory interest in the studies or that these would be taken up in
shaping future interventions and policies. This is largely due to a lack of appreciation of
evaluation and limited capacity within Government.
48. Often responsible or participating public servants lack capacity to engage on the details
on the survey methodologies and sampling for the study. Reportedly, some only focus
on those elements that are likely to cause embarrassment to government. Whilst
completed evaluations are supplied to role players within particular sector working
groups, the evidence that these feature in higher level dialogue remains minimal or
unclear. The M&E Working Group and specific sector working groups should, in theory,
overcome this disconnect between supplied evaluations and actual policy making.
49. Generally, each DP establishes its own practices for using evaluations to guide future
efforts. Partners from the UN agencies engage directly with Ministries and Ministers on
policy changes needed in light of evidence collated during evaluations. More often the
results of evaluations feature in annual deliberations on areas to be supported by DPs
and emerge as elements of conditionality for future support. There is very little evidence
to suggest that evaluations feature in the deliberations of the Council of Ministers.
50. The demand for evaluation emanates from both GoE and DPs. As Ethiopia is investing
huge resources to bring about poverty reduction and sustainable development,
evaluation is seen as a means to ensure that the investments are leading to intended
outcomes. In addition, as a recipient of large amounts of DP resources, there is a wider
push for formal and systematic evaluations of development interventions and purpose
specific programmes and projects. This momentum has increased over the past few
years and is driven by a) a global move forward on aid effectiveness; b) concerns that DP
resources were being used to advantage the ruling party; and c) increased pressure for
accountability in donor countries.
51. The demand for evaluation remains nascent. There is regular demand for poverty
analysis evaluation from MoFED which is partly financed by government. This evaluation
is undertaken every five years in the form of evaluating government plans and policies.
14
The largest demand is, however, embodied in aid reporting demands as M&E is a
requirement for most DPs supported projects. Given the scale of aid flows and the
complex channels through which resources are made available, the country has an
elaborate structure for coordinating aid management and policy dialogue summarised in
Table 4.
15
Table 4: Summary of Joint Donor- Government Structures for Policy Dialogue
Structure Composition Policy role
High Level
Forum
Heads of donor agencies,
Ethiopian Minister of
Finance and Economic
Development
(representative of
Ethiopian government
and hosts the working
group), other key federal
Ministries.
Meets twice a year to discuss high-level
development policy and coordination issues.
Sector Strategy Working Groups
Health Donor agencies, Ministry
of Health (chair and hosts
the working group), and
relevant ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of health policy, strategy, and
programmes. It also includes M&E on sector
programme implementation and progress
towards GTP objective and MDG goals and
dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Education Donor agencies, Ministry
of Education (chair and
host of the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of education policy, strategy,
and programmes. It also includes M&E on
sector programme implementation and
progress towards GTP objective and MDG
goals and dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Public Finance
Management
Donor agencies, Ministry
of Finance and Economic
Development (chair and
hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss broad public
financial management issues, as well as ensure
adequate on-going attention to Joint Budget
and Aid Reviews, annual Fiduciary
Assessments and the general macroeconomic
situation.
Gender Donor agencies, Ministry
of Women, Youth and
Children (chair and hosts
the working group), and
relevant ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of gender policy, strategy, and
programmes. It also includes M&E on sector
programme implementation and progress
towards GTP objective and MDG Goals and
dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to Government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Rural
development and
food security
Donor agencies, Ministry
of Agriculture (chair and
hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of rural development and food
security policy, strategy, and programmes. It
also includes M&E on sector programme
implementation and progress towards GTP
objective and MDG Goals and dialogue on
harmonisation of donor procedures, aid
alignment to Government priorities, to the
16
Structure Composition Policy role
national process and sector programmes.
Transport Donor agencies, Ministry
of Transport and
Communication (chair
and hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of transport policy, strategy,
and programmes. It also includes M&E on
sector programme implementation and
progress towards GTP objective and MDG
Goals and dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to Government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Water Donor agencies, Ministry
of Water and Energy
(chair and hosts the
working group), and
relevant ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of water policy, strategy, and
programmes. It also includes M&E on sector
programme implementation and progress
towards GTP objective and MDG Goals and
dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to Government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Private sector
development and
trade
Donor agencies, Ministry
of Industry (chair and
hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss progress and
implementation of government policy,
strategy, and programmes in promoting
private sector development. It also includes
M&E on sector programme implementation
and progress towards GTP objective and MDG
Goals and dialogue on harmonisation of donor
procedures, aid alignment to Government
priorities, to the national process and sector
programmes.
Civil society Donor agencies,
Ethiopian Charities and
Societies Agency (chair
and hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss government policy
and programmes and civil society engagement.
It also includes M&E on sector programme
implementation and progress towards GTP
objective and MDG Goals and dialogue on
harmonisation of donor procedures, aid
alignment to Government priorities, to the
national process and sector programmes.
M&E Donor agencies, Ministry
of Finance and Economic
Development (chair and
hosts the working
group), and relevant
ministries.
Meets quarterly to discuss on M&E (GTP policy
matrix)
Source: Authors’ construction based on interview with UN Agencies and Regional Economic Cooperation Directorate
(MoFED) experts and Generic ToR for Sector Working Groups in Ethiopia.
52. The demand for evaluations is embedded in funding agreements and other support
instruments that emerge within the Joint Structures. Donors and Government report
that M&E is standard in all agreements. Even though the structures provide for a level of
coordination on evaluations, the level of duplication remains high and for many,
necessary, given the wide ranging donor accountability needs.
17
53. The wider push from society is limited and there is minimal evidence of government led
financed and owned evaluations. This is mainly attributed to a lack of appreciation for
rigorous evaluations of impact and also limited capacity to manage or undertake
evaluation. The substantive push forward has been from DPs and to a large extent by
the formal inclusion of evaluative requirements within designed DP-supported sector
initiatives. Almost all DPs’ country assistance strategies, development assistance
frameworks and specific DP-supported projects have an M&E component. There are
about 25 bilateral DPs, 21 UN Country teams and international finance institutions such
as WB, AfDB, IFAD, European Investment Bank and the Arab Bank, which are active in
the country. There are about 300 on-going projects supported by bilateral DPs. All have
an M&E component.6
The UN Development Assistance Framework (2012-2015) has an
output and outcome based M&E plan7
. MoFED and line ministries have M&E component
in their five-year plan. In most cases it is monitoring that is implemented.
54. Demands are generally expressed through Government and DPs meetings and through
joint sector working groups, some of which have specific M&E sub-groups. The push has
largely been from DP-established accountability requirements rather than evaluations
being driven by a desire for measuring the efficacy and impact of programmes. The
shape of demand has nevertheless evolved and there are indications that the GoE is
beginning to engage with the need for structured and regular evaluations to guide
interventions, budget allocation and policy.
55. It seems that the GoE has a guarded approach to evaluation research on its initiatives. A
detailed analysis of the influence of donors on policy by Furtado and Smith (2009)
concludes that Government limits donor influence over the policy agenda by
simultaneously pursuing a programme of decentralised implementation. The analysis by
the same authors concludes that in Ethiopia relatively tight control over the national
policy agenda is maintained by a small sub-set of actors within the ruling party and that
the real channels of decision-making in Ethiopia differ from the apparent ones. It should
be noted, however, that policy and plan formulation in the country are becoming
growingly consultative. Typical example is the process of PASDEP and GTP.
56. There is a tendency to conflate monitoring with evaluation within government. This
means that systematic independent evaluations are conflated with review meetings,
field visits and periodic monitoring exercises. The GoE issued Guidelines for M&E of
Public Sector Projects in June 2008 in an attempt to overcome some of the challenges
embedded in a diffused system. Even though the Guidelines establish a distinction
between monitoring and evaluation, the operational guidance provided still conflates
the two by using the concepts of outcomes monitoring and ex-post evaluations.
57. Article 39/3 of the Constitution of Ethiopia provides for the sovereignty of Government
over the development of Ethiopia and establishes the legal foundation for demand for
evaluations within the political and policy process (GoE, 1995). This demand is
operationalised through Proclamation No 41/1993, which provides MoFED with the
responsibility of following up and evaluating the execution of capital budgets, external

6
Interviews with different directorates in MoFED and line ministries.
7
See UN Country Team (2011) for the Action Plan and UN Country Team (2012a and 2012b) for more details.
18
assistance, loans and the accounts of the federal government, including subsidies
granted to regional states. The rationale for establishing the Guidelines was, in part,
driven by a realisation that the current system is diffused and that a common system is
needed. An understanding of the system in practice requires an analysis goes beyond
formally articulated responsibility to engage with the latent and explicit institutional
forms that shape the demand for evaluation.
58. In the space of conflating monitoring with evaluative studies, the primary demand focus
of government has been for the purposes of generating APRs on the GTP. In this respect,
sector departments, with the cooperation of sub-national entities, generate M&E sector
progress reports for inclusion in the overall report and for submission to the relevant
Parliamentary Committees as a standard requirement. MoFED is also regularly (every
five years) evaluating the success of the overall national development plans focusing on
poverty based on the periodic HICES, WMS, and DHS, undertaken by the CSA. The
current poverty analysis is the fourth one. It evaluates the impact of PASDEP, the fiveyear
plan (2005/06-2009/10). For both the survey and the analysis, the bulk of the
financial support comes from DPs.
3.2 Government Agents
59. Within the system of government, the demand for evaluations and the manner in which
supply unfolds is linked to the planning and budget process. In addition to MoFED’s
responsibilities, reliance on DP increases demand for the purposes of continuity in
resource support for initiatives and programmes contained in the GTP. Volume II of the
GTP document serves as an M&E matrix (FDRE (2010b). The overall GTP document
explicitly highlights the importance of data for monitoring and evaluating the
achievements of the Plan. There is also operational commitment by the Government to
an agenda of results that require M&E and statistics. Ethiopia’s National Statistical
System (NSS) establishes the framework for the information required to measure,
monitor and evaluate the development process.
60. Government agents are politically well placed for conducting evaluation and have
financial and human resources they can access through DPs. Government agents include
central and line departments and other implementing agencies. This group of
government agents interface with principals around the commissioning, conducting and
managing of evaluations. Government are users of the evaluation and can on occasions
conduct evaluations.
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
61. Given the formal role and responsibilities accorded to MoFED on M&E, it stands at the
centre of both the demand for, and supply of, evaluation and evidence based policy
making. Other than the newly established Office of the State Ministers for M&E within
the PM Office, MoFED stands as the overarching department in government with the
authority and position to facilitate the link between the demand for and supply of
evaluation. MoFED retains a level of control over policy dialogue, but the challenges
between centralised dialogue and decentralised delivery does challenge MoFED’s ability
to retain complete control (Furtado and Smith 2009).
62. MoFED’s function and structure has evolved. At one point in time it had custodianship
over a comprehensive M&E system known as Welfare Monitoring System Programme
19
(WMSP). This system was established in 1996 and the Welfare Monitoring Unit (WMU)
within MoFED was responsible for the implementation of the system. The WMU uses to
take a lead on the generation of input, output and outcome reports on the SDPRP and
PASDEP policy matrix and related indicators. The reports generated were based on
specialised surveys conducted by CSA, the routine data generated by sectoral ministries
and local governments, and information generated by civil society institutions, such as
the findings of the citizens’ report card, which was produced by the PANE. MoFED also
had a five-year M&E action plan, supported by DPs, to monitor input, process and
output indicators across levels of government and to evaluate the outcome and impact
of government policies and programmes (see CSA 2009).
63. Following the introduction of Business Process Reengineering (BPR), which included
strategies for the flattening of organisational structures, the WMU in MoFED was
dissolved. There is, therefore, no overarching coordinating unit responsible for M&E in
government. The Development Planning and Research Directorate (DPRD) of MoFED is
responsible for M&E but there is no dedicated capacity (both finance and expertise) for
evaluation. MoFED is currently in discussion within government and DPs on introducing
an M&E unit and Project Appraisal department. However, these activities may well be
organised under the M&E department in the new Planning Commission. The Director of
the DPRD of MoFED is currently working with the Commissioner on the details of the
planning commission.
64. MoFED is focused on the generation of annual monitoring reports given the limited
capacity to commission and manage evaluative studies. The reporting system, which
incorporates some impact related data from CSA, is constructed on the basis of
aggregating information and reports generated by sector ministries. This data is used for
generating sector reports for the HPR Standing Committees and for the APRs. The APRs
are generated by the DPRD staff.
65. MoFED also does poverty analysis every five years based on the CSA periodical
household surveys. This is produced by consultants inside and outside the country and
managed by DPRD of MoFED. The current poverty analysis which is the fourth one was
conducted independently by Addis Ababa University and Oxford University. This is
already an institutionalised activity and seems to continue without donor support.
66. Given MoFED’s role in providing reports to the Council of Ministers and concomitant
pressures from the Council and other government stakeholders, including DPs, for
better reports, MoFED is concerned with the quality of the M&E data needed for the
reports. MoFED has also, more recently, engaged with outside stakeholders on capacity
building, the possible supply of policy relevant studies, and on enhancing M&E
professionalism. These are explored further when looking at supply.
20
Box 1: Results Based Management (RBM)
Government efforts towards improving delivery and enhancing a focus on outcomes
The growing quest for adopting result orientations in Ethiopia has its roots in the county’s
development commitments. The GoE is implementing the GTP, the MDGs and other national,
regional and sectoral development plans. Recognising the importance of evidence based
policy/plan formulation, the GoE has prepared a sound and practical National Statistical
Development Strategy (NSDS) for the period 2009/10-2013/14 which is strongly grounded
in the desire to improve the quality of decision making through the use of evidence. As noted
by the Minister of MoFED, in his introduction to the NSDS:
“The government of Ethiopia has committed itself to an agenda of results and, to realise this,
almost all public institutions are currently designing, or are in the process of implementing,
BPR to bring about fundamental change in their services and pave the way for performance
(results) management. Moreover, the government is implementing the poverty reduction
strategy i.e. a Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other national, regional and sectoral development
plans. All these require clear and systematic measurement, monitoring and evaluation of the
achievement of outputs, outcomes and the impact of development policies and plan targets.”
(CSA, 2009:1)
The commitment of the government to an agenda of results facilitates a wider embracing of
BPR and the introduction of balanced scorecards in public sector organisations. The shift is
evident in a demand for change management; the move from a project to sector wide
programme implementation approach; and the shift from line item budgeting to programme
budgeting. This is coupled with a demand for accountability and transparency particularly
through automated results based M&E systems. The commitment and pressure for this
orientation emanates from the Council of Ministers during the hearing on the APR.
MoFED, in collaboration with UNDP, developed a strategy note for mainstreaming RBM for
realisation of GTP in 2012 (MoFED, 2012a). Ethiopian RBM has five core pillars: results
based planning and budgeting; results based M&E; wider application of evidence/statistics;
results based leadership; and results based accountability.
In order to establish a deeper understanding of the value of RBM, a team of experts from
MoFED and the regional Bureaus of Finance and Economic Development, together with
UNICEF, visited Malaysia. The GoE and UN embarked on evidence based implementation of
RBM due to the complex development environment and decentralised structure of the
country. UNDP contracted a consultancy firm to assess the capacity of the public sector at
federal, regional and district level institutions for RBM roll-out in planning, budgeting, M&E,
accountability and partnership and the general use of evidence in shaping operational
actions. The roll out process requires engagements with local stakeholders.
The commitment to RBM reflects a willingness to learn from wider experiences and a more
sustained move towards embracing a results orientation within government. The need for
RBM is an area of consensus between Government and DPs and whilst initially propagated
by DPs, government has taken overall leadership over the effort. Although the roll-out
process is still reliant on donor resources, government perceives the strategy as being
consistent with its own efforts towards improving delivery and enhancing a focus on
outcomes. The opportunity for conducting substantive evidence based analysis on the
efficacy of the programme remains open and it is likely that government would work
towards ensuring that the findings feed into policy adjustments, where needed.
Line Ministries
67. The GTP contains an implied demand for evaluations relative to the indicators and
outcomes articulated. However, the actual evaluation exercise is perceived to be the
21
operational responsibility areas of sector ministries and related sector working groups
established with DPs. In view of the provision of Chapter 10 of the GTP, there is a belief
in MoFED that the framework for M&E exists and that, despite capacity challenges, the
system works, in that it draws on data from sectors and CSA specialised periodical
surveys such as DHS, WMS and HICES.
68. MoFED has established clear lines of authority and responsibility for line ministries,
regional structures and local level institutions to facilitate reporting on the GTP. Each of
the line ministries also retains a responsibility for reporting to relevant Legislative
Committees. Subject to guidance on quality from the CSA, some line ministries also
generate reports from their own systems. The Health Management Information System
(HMIS) and the Education Management Information System (EMIS) are important
reporting resources in this regard. These systems collate administrative related
information but there are concerns on the quality and reliability of information collated
from regions and local institutions. Some of the line ministries have established
practices for local level inputs in generating their performance reports. However, even in
these cases, the review processes are focused on generating information on activities
and outputs delivered, rather than on the value or efficacy of interventions.
69. The Budget Preparation and Administration Directorate of the MoFED is responsible for
compiling government financial statistics. It also has the authority to collect data on the
annual estimates of government revenues, development receipts, loans and grants,
annual estimates of government expenditures, including recurrent development and
public debt services and budgetary explanatory notes. These data are required for
preparing and monitoring the budget in cooperation with ministries. Revenue and
expenditure statistics for the budget sector and financing statistics are prepared on a
monthly basis.
70. Despite the formal inclusion of evaluation in the text of the GTP, evaluation is ad-hoc.
The need for impact evaluations is not fully appreciated due to the absence of
evaluation capacity and a general lack of understanding of evaluation as generating
information that goes beyond a focus on processes and outputs to the efficacy of
programmes for affected people. There are indications that the Health, Education and
Agricultural Ministries are more actively engaged in commissioning evaluations and have
a deeper capacity for recognising the value of impact studies and more policy reflective
research from independent organisations.
71. Examples provided in Box 2 and Box 3 show evidence demand by Ministry of Agriculture
and Ministry of Health to shift food aid to more sustainable approach to create drought
resilient households and for better use of health services, respectively.
22
Box 2: Productive Safety Net Programme
Evidence demanded by the Ministry of Agriculture to shift food aid to create drought
resilient households
The repeated drought and famine forced the government and DPs to rethink their approach
to help families and communities to prepare for and respond to droughts. A task force was
set up to develop a strategy for shifting the predictable caseload of chronically food insecure
households from emergency food aid to a new safety net that would link household
subsistence support to development. The task force presented the New Coalition for Food
Security in Ethiopia at a meeting chaired by the late PM (FDRE, 2003) which led to the
introduction of a new national Food Security Program (FSP) issued in 2003. The FSP had
three principal components - the PSNP, the Other Food Security Programme (OFSP), and a
programme of resettlement – of which donors supported the first two.
The PSNP was launched in 2005. In its second, 2010-2015 phase, it operates in 319 districts,
supporting between 6 and 7.8 million people each year, with a total budget of 2.1 billion USD.
It is the largest such programme in low-income Africa. It operates as a safety net by targeting
small transfers of cash and/or food to beneficiaries in two ways, through Public Works (PW)
and Direct Support (DS). Most of the transfer is through PWs in the form of payment to
beneficiaries selected by the community for work they undertake on labour-intensive
projects that build community assets. DS is provided to labour-scarce households and
households whose primary income earners are elderly or disabled (see FDRE, 2004).
The PSNP is complemented by a livelihoods programme (the Household Asset-Building
Programme [HABP]), which in 2010 replaced the OFSP. While the PSNP aims to protect
households from shocks and declining living standards by stabilising their income and
allowing them to smooth consumption, the HABP aims to help households to increase and
diversify their incomes and escape poverty and vulnerability by providing them with advice
on opportunities, access to credit, agricultural extension and technology transfer.
The log frame and M&E system of the PSNP is nested within an overall log frame and system
for the Government’s FSP8
. Monitoring data includes monthly reporting of basic information
(timeliness of transfers and local staple food prices) for a sample of 80 PSNP woredas by
Regional Information Centres (RICs), consolidated and distributed by the Federal
Information Centre (FIC); regular programme output and financial reporting through the line
structures of MoA and MoFED; and ad hoc spot checks and problem identification through
joint visits under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM). The cornerstone of programme
evaluation is provided by independent performance and impact assessments produced every
two years by a research consortium of the IFPRI, the IDS of Sussex University and a local
research organisation called Dadimos.
These evaluations (usually released the year after data was collected) have assessed
programme implementation and impact in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012. They are based on
quantitative data collected by the CSA (including a panel survey of 6,700 households plus
surveys of kebele, woreda and regional staff involved in implementation) and qualitative data
collected by IDS and Dadimos. The performance reports assess key elements of programme
implementation and institutional capacity; the impact assessments use the household panel
data to estimate the impact of transfers on final outcome indicators such as the household
food gap and ownership of productive assets.9

8
For a description of the basic structure of the PSNP M&E system, see pp. 26-7 in the PAD (World Bank, 2009) and pp. 67-
83 in the programme document (MoARD 2009).
9
Berhane et al 2011a, 2011b, 2013; Sabates-Wheeler et al 2011; Hoddinott et al 2013; Lind et al 2013; Neha and Hoddinott
2013.
23
In addition to the IFPRI-IDS-Dadimos evaluations of household-level impact, there are
separate monitoring and evaluation products, which focus upon the delivery and impact (on
the local environment and social and economic development) of public works created by
PSNP. There are (in theory) two Public Works Reviews conducted every year, the first
providing qualitative assessments (quantified as ratings) of the quality of the project
selection and planning process, and the second assessing the quality and sustainability of the
completed works. In practice, only four out of the potential six reviews have been completed
(one in 2010, two in 2011, and one in 2012). There have also been two Public Works Impact
Assessments (both in 2011), which have involved an in-depth evaluation of the bio-physical
and microeconomic aspects of public works in a small sample of case study PSNP
watersheds.
Every two years, the PSNP evaluation results are presented first at regional and then federal
levels for comment and discussion with government staff and DPs, and have created some
understandings about evaluation by the government. The 2008 evaluation was used to
inform the design of the current (2010-15) phase (including the decision of the World Bank
and other donors to renew support to the programme, and the incorporation of forecast
PSNP results in GTP targets). The 2010 and 2012 evaluations have shaped government-DP
dialogue on what is needed to improve programme implementation, notably in the sixmonthly
Joint Review and Implementation Supervision (JRIS) exercises but also in other,
monthly or quarterly meetings between the MoA and the PSNP DPs.
As Government established a direct interest in the initiative and represented a collective
approach to resolving the drought challenge, the active buy-in to the importance of the
impact evaluations is very high, even if regions and sometimes the Ministry dispute specific
findings. Much of the implications have been for operational level changes and these have
been instituted. The Public Works Impact Assessments have also influenced dialogue on
policy and programming, although to a lesser extent than the household impact assessments.
More broadly, there are a number of routine (if irregular) meetings between the government
and DPs on PSNP management, which provide an opportunity for more comprehensive
dialogue on programme issues and hence a channel for ensuring that government takes
seriously the conclusions that emanate from research and related analytical studies.
Box 3: Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI)
Evidence demanded by the Ministry of Health for better use of health services
The Ethiopian public health sector is characterised by low coverage rates, low utilisation
rates and the country experiences low health outcomes, particularly in rural areas. In the last
decade, the MoH policy responses to underutilisation of health care in Ethiopia has focused
on supply side problems, and has given priority to the development of health services
extension programmes and the rapid expansion of health posts and health centres. Despite
the huge efforts on the supply side and the high burden of disease, health services utilisation
remained low for many years. This was noted in the periodic demographic and health
surveys of the CSA and administrative data from MoH itself.
MoH undertook an evaluation with the help of USAID in 1995 and recognised that demand
side barriers such as poverty and the cost of health care have contributed to underutilisation
of health care services. Based on this evaluation, the MoH established a new health policy in
1995/96, which highlights the importance of health care financing reforms for better health
service delivery and health insurance to increase the health care utilisation level and reduce
the high disease burden. The MoH set up a task force to lead the process of the policy change.
24
This task force was headed by the then Planning and Policy Department of the MoH and
composed of various stakeholders such as Abt Associates
10, MoFED, Ministry of Social and
Labour Affairs, Association of Private Health Practitioners, and four Regional Health Bureaus.
This task force, accountable to the MoH, visited Mexico, Ghana, Senegal and Rwanda in 2006
and 2007 to look into the international experience in health insurance. The task force
presented its report and findings to the high level forum chaired by the Minister in 2007.
This extensive study and learning process led to the development of the Health Insurance
Strategy (HIS) in 2008. The strategy was inclusive of Social Health Insurance (SHI) for the
formal sector and a Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI) scheme in rural areas to be
rolled out on a pilot basis, with the aim of scaling up nationwide. Further international
experience was sought and the task force visited Vietnam, Thailand and China in 2009 to get
further understanding in the design, implementation and challenges of health insurance
schemes.
Abt Associates had undertaken several studies in relation to CBHI. In 2008 it produced a
document on Piloting Community-Based Health Insurance in Ethiopia: The Way Forward and
commissioned several feasibility studies on CBHI in four regions - Amhara, Oromia, SNNP
and Tigray. Based on these studies, the government launched the CBHI in the four regional
states in 2011. In each region, three pilot districts were selected. These districts were chosen
on the basis of the willingness of district authorities to implement and support CBHI,
geographical accessibility of health centres, quality of health services and management
information systems, implementation of cost recovery and local revenue retention (Abt
Associates, 2008).
The CBHI project has an inbuilt M&E component in order to assess the pilot implementation
and draw lessons for the scale-up. There is also a collaborative research project investigating
the impact of CBHI. This research project involved a baseline survey before the
implementation of the CBHI in March-April 2011 and has completed a two follow up surveys
with the same households, in the same months, in 2012 and 2013. Interim results are
indicative of positive results. The process that unfolded from the focus on supply side
towards a demand side demonstrates that there are spaces for policy shift when government
is faced with data and that this often serves to catalyse actions directed at generating further
evidence and policy guidance.
Central Statistics Agency
72. The use of statistics for development planning and growth tracking in Ethiopia is not
new and can be traced back to the 1950s. However, it was only in 1963 that this was
formalised through the founding of the Central Statistical Office (CSO). In 1989,
Government established a Statistical Framework and CSO changed to CSA, which was
initially accountable to the Council of Ministers. Since 1996, the CSA is accountable to
the Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation and from 2001 to MoFED.
Proclamation No 442/205 in 2005 gave more power and independence to CSA as a
federal agency reporting to MoFED.
73. The Agency is responsible for the collation of data, the provision of M&E reports and for
the establishment of standards for statistics within government. The Agency is primarily

10 Abt Associates is a private consulting firm and implementing wing of the Health Care Financing Reform
Strategy and Health Insurance Strategy in Ethiopia.
25
focused on providing data for the purpose of M&E of the country’s GTP and for
reporting on the MDGs, but not necessarily for the analysis of the data. The scale of CSA
activities has increased from household consumption and expenditure surveys in only
three selected urban centres to several annual sample surveys, various socio-economic
periodic surveys and a population census that is undertaken every ten years.
74. Government was concerned that the data generated by line ministries was uneven and
could not be affirmed as official outside of a common set of standards. This control over
data and what should be considered official is a matter of internal debate, given that
data may be used for policy contestation within the wider governance process. CSA has,
therefore, the mandate to build wider capacity and ensure that data quality standards
are maintained. This function includes providing training on statistics for line ministries
and supporting efforts to enhance data collection and collation efforts within
government. CSA has been central in the establishment of the National Statistical
System (NSS) and actively collaborates with DPs on the building of the statistical
infrastructure and wider data collection and collation capacity in Government (World
Bank, 2013).
75. The CSA has restructured itself and demonstrates a high level of responsiveness in the
provision of data for M&E purposes. It has established 25 branch offices in different
regions. The number of professional staff has grown from 3 in 1962 to 135 in 2001 and
in 2013 the Agency has close to 340 professional staff. CSA has been implementing a five
year National Statistical Development Strategy (NSDS, 2009/10-2013/14), funded by the
World Bank. This particular strategy has been revised to fit into the data requirements of
the GTP.
76. The CSA engaged in a consultation exercise in all sectors, including DPs, on their data
needs when developing the NSDS. Sector institutions and DPs were also asked to
provide their three top priorities for improvement and new data collections. The
organisations approached numbered 90 and 18 government organisations, including one
Regional State Bureau, responded. Some submitted more than one questionnaire,
including MoFED and the National Bank. Six responses were obtained from the
multilateral DPs, including the UN, the IMF and the World Bank. Six special-interest
organisations responded, including women‘s organisations, the Confederation of Trade
Unions, and organisations representing people with disabilities. Eight research
institutions and two companies from the private sector responded (CSA, 2009:48). They
were requested to identify the policies that these were to address and to outline the
consequences of not obtaining the required information (CSA 2009:48). These prioritised
needs presented, for CSA, a clearer sense of statistics for evaluation purposes and a road
map for building capacity and work programmes across the whole NSS.
77. CSA has established an NSS coordination unit. This unit is responsible for: the
development of common standards and related classifications; service level agreements
between each NSS partner11 and the CSA, the provision of support partners; and
managing the data quality assessment process. All these efforts are designed to provide

11 NSS members include federal and regional government ministries, departments and agencies as well as research and
teaching institutions and civil society organisations.
26
quality, timely and standard data for M&E on the GTP and achievement of the MDGs.
CSA has also improved the scope and coverage of business statistics. In 2011 the Agency
issued the Ethiopian Data Quality Assessment Framework (EDQAF) with the objective of
minimising the data inconsistencies from different sectors by developing common
statistical standards, classification and concepts (CSA, 2011).
78. Despite all these efforts and significant shifts in the country’s NSS, the country’s
statistical framework suffers from several limitations. The CSA lacks the capacity to carry
out in-depth analysis of the data. In addition, the Agency finds it very difficult to retain
personnel with the existing civil service salary standards. The Agency also has limited
capacity in terms of field vehicles and field data collection tools. The data collected by
CSA does not go below region level indicators. Provincial (Administrative Zones) and
district (Woreda) level indicators are missing. However, it does enjoy legitimacy and
support from DPs and numerous efforts are underway to enhance capacity and assist
CSA with the implementation of its plans. The usage of data by sectors and DPs is not
high and many stakeholders continue to duplicate data collection efforts through,
amongst others, conducting their own surveys. Whilst CSA is building capacity in the
wider government system for statistics, there are no demonstrable efforts directed at
enhancing capacity for the utilisation of collected data for M&E purposes.
3.3 Evaluation Agents
79. Supply of evidence and evaluation agents are spread across professional public and
private suppliers, and embedded in the work of independent think-tanks, universities
and professional associations. This group is mainly concerned with conducting
evaluations often commissioned by government, but also sometimes by principals.
Professional Suppliers
80. Many of the evaluations reviewed had been contracted to organisations or individuals
based in the north, but were often secured or completed in partnership with local
consultants or consulting organisations. In some cases the need for local participation is
built in as a requirement in the Terms of Reference. There is a perception that local
organisations cannot complete large evaluations on their own and need capacity from
outside of Ethiopia. Although some evaluations are conducted autonomously, the actual
research process often requires government to grant permission. DPs or evaluators have
to secure permission from the federal government, the regional states and relevant local
structures to conduct local level evaluations.
81. The general perception of DPs who commission evaluation studies is that there are a
very small number of private companies in Ethiopia that have the capacity to conduct
evaluations. There is very little evidence that shows studies have been conducted, on a
commissioned basis, by local companies alone, without some form of partnership
arrangement with external organisations. The private supply sector remains fairly small
but is growing slowly. Whilst private consulting organisations do apply for work, the
perception from interviewees is that they lack capacity and that the number of available
skilled evaluation specialist in Ethiopia is very limited.
Independent Think Tanks and Research Institutions
82. The Government of Ethiopia, during the time of the late Prime Minister, established a
research institute to provide policy guidance to the Prime Minister and his Cabinet. The
27
Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) was established in 1999 with
government support, as a semi-autonomous government development research
institute headed by the chief economic advisor to the PM. Its primary mission is to
conduct research on the development of the Ethiopian economy and to disseminate the
results. EDRI is structurally located under the Office of the Prime Minister and from
available details appears to be responsible for the generation of policy papers for the
Prime Minister and Cabinet. In addition to receiving direct funding from government, it
has sourced funding from DPs (EDRI, 2013).
83. Although EDRI appears functional on paper, the extent to which it generates
independent evaluation related analysis is contested. Whilst the 2011 Annual Report of
the Institute reflects the completion of a number of evaluative type studies, the general
output centres on establishing economic models for the future and providing guidance
on future oriented policies. The Institute also has an Advisory Board, largely constitutive
of serving government ministers and non-state representatives. The Institute has limited
full time employees and much of the work is undertaken by research associates from the
Addis Ababa University and in collaboration with institutes such as IFPRI.
84. The Ethiopian Economics Associations (EEA) appears to be better resourced and has a
much longer history within the country as a think tank. It has also established a research
wing, the Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute. In addition to conducting and
promoting independent research in a number of areas, the Institute has participated in
evaluation exercises and successfully completed an impact evaluation on health
extension services with the financial and technical support of the Global Development
Network. It is also a collaborator on the impact evaluation on Community Based Health
Insurance (CBHI) in Ethiopia. This is a four-year research project funded by The
Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) and entails collaboration
between the association and a number of European Universities. Whilst such
collaborative activities are growing, legislation on funding for local institutions establish
a number of constraints. There is general awareness amongst those within the non-state
sector that there is limited capacity in the country to conduct evaluations and limited
evidence collection and collation capacity. EEA is committed to enhancing capacity and
is currently working on establishing an institute that focuses on impact evaluation at an
MSc degree level. It is anticipated that if this materialises it will play a significant role in
enhancing capacity for local evaluation supply.
85. Academics from Department of Economics at Addis Ababa University, the oldest and
largest university in Ethiopia, have been engaging with MoFED and are called upon to
assist with the drafting of the APRs. This opening up has gained momentum and MoFED
has established a formal collaborative project with the Department of Economics. The
project includes the provision of tailor made training programmes to MoFED, National
Bank, Ministry of Industry and Ministry of Trade employees on macro-economic
modelling and forecasting, as well as conducts research relevant to the APRs on the GTP
funded by MoFED. The condition for such funding is that the research outputs must be
publishable in an international journal of good standing. This linkage provides an
important opportunity for the future and suggests some level of appreciation for
independent research on the part of government.
86. Given the wider capacity limits, line ministries often establish direct working
relationships with specific organisations to assist data collection and evaluative exercises.
28
For example, IFPRI has established positive working relationships with the MoA, CSA and
MoFED. This relationship has allowed it to engage substantively in assisting with
evaluations. Of all of the structures existing outside of Government, it is deemed to be
an institution with better capacity for evaluation exercises and has completed four
rounds of household surveys in a panel fashion and produced a number of evaluation
reports on the PSNP. IFPRI continues to work on developing innovative data collection
methods for its evaluative exercises.
Universities
87. The number of public universities in Ethiopia has grown from 2 to 31 over the past two
decades, and there is now one private university and various university colleges in
Ethiopia. Such rapid expansion has brought with it growing doubts about the quality of
education as well as the employability of graduates. In 2008 a decision was made by
government that all higher education institutions should enrol 70% of students in
engineering, technology and the natural sciences, and 30% in social science and
humanities. In line with Ethiopia's five-year plan, a target has been set that 25% of
university lecturers should be qualified up to PhD level, and 75% to have Masters by
2015.
88. In 2013 only Addis Ababa, Haromaya, Jima and Bahir Dar universities have established
post graduate programmes at PhD level in various fields. Addis Ababa University, with
government and DP support, has rapidly expanded its capacity for Masters and PhD. In
2010/11 there were over 9,500 enrolments for Master’s and nearly 1,300 for PhD. This
rapid scaling up comes with risks and the university has been struggling to find
experienced local faculty to supervise PhD candidates. In addition, the few qualified
faculty have to supervise more than 10 PhD students at a time which may compromise
the quality of supervision. Despite all these problems, the pressures for expansion
continue.
89. Only one of the universities has introduced a programme primarily focused on building
capacity for M&E. Jima University has established a post graduate programme in M&E
within the health sector. The programme is also perceived to be more focused on
monitoring and hence thin on impact evaluation practice and conduct. Although a
number of professional journals are published12
, a review of these suggests that the
level of evaluation research is limited. Given the rapid growth in university numbers and
governments commitment to the sector, the opportunity for expanding supply capacity
exists, but much will be dependent on the quality of education and the growth in PhD
numbers.
90. The capacity of universities in supplying evaluation services is limited. Many of the
universities are new and others are focused on producing postgraduates for regional
universities. As many institutions have increased student numbers, the level of research
output from universities is reportedly low. It has been reported that the research
incentive system is very low. Staff motivation is poor due to low salaries (about 300 USD

12 EEA’s Journal, College of Development Studies Journal, School of Public Health Journal, Faculty of Business and
Economics Journal, Institute of Education Research Journal, Institute of Ethiopian Studies Journal. Journals outside of Addis
Ababa and universities in the region are not included here.
29
per month for assistant professor/PhD holder). Most are engaged in various consultancy
works with NGOs and do not have time and incentive for research. Consultancy is a
source of income but does not require strong analytical capacity and is not publishable.
As a result, universities have been slow in expanding capacity and doing evaluations.
Interviewees suggest that universities and the public sector operate at a distance and do
not work in partnership. This is due to a long term tense relationships between the two
institutions.
Evaluators and Evaluation Association
91. The number of evaluation specialists, working independently or based within
organisations, is perceived to be low. The Ethiopian Evaluation Association (EEvA) with a
membership of over 100 notes a lack of evaluation professionals within Ethiopia. The
association itself struggles to mobilise the required capacities for the conduct of
evaluation or for the delivery of quality training for evaluation exercises. Since its
establishment in 2009, the association has been struggling to establish itself as a
professional body and has not succeeded in mobilising local resources to support its
initiatives. Funding for its formal conferences is provided by UNICEF, on the agreement
of MoFED. However, it has since not succeeded in its efforts to mobilise further funds
and is constrained by the civil society law that limits the extent to which it is able to
mobilise DPs resources or resources from other external sources.
92. The leadership of the EEvA remains committed to growing the organisation and
perceives it as having an important role in enhancing evaluation practice and
appreciation thereof in the wider society. Members and the leadership have worked
actively in building government support. Although the organisation has a number of
members from within government, the funding mobilisation constraints faced with such
associational entities makes it very difficult for the organisation to have an appreciable
impact on building wider awareness and appreciation for evaluation exercises. An
important articulated objective for the association is building a wider appreciation of the
value of evaluations as socially beneficial technical exercises, rather than a critique of
government action (EEvA, 2012). The Association has no office and secretariat due to
financial and resource mobilisation constraints.
4. PATHWAYS, OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
93. This study tries to understand the conditions under which demand for evaluation is
generated, the range and capacity of entities supplying evaluation services, and the
areas in which supply can be strengthened to meet and foster this demand. This study
has shown that there are currently active, latent and potential demands for evaluation.
The latent and potential demands are nested within the demands for evidence from
principals and government agents in Ethiopia. This demand is part and parcel of
government development plans and donor supported government programmes. But
most evaluation exercises are financed by DPs and most of evaluation documents are
used to inform DP intervention rather than government policies and plans. Even though
commitments to evaluation is articulated formally, the level of active ownership and
buy-in is likely to remain fairly low in the immediate future. Supply could be
strengthened through work with EEA/EEPRI and AAU and MoFED collaborative projects.
Principals and government agents need not only to appreciate but also to institutionalise
evaluation practices for evidence based development policy making. Capacity should be
30
enhanced to ensure an adequate and effective supply of evaluation. A range of
pathways relating to these triple challenges is identified and discussed below.
4.1Demand
94. There has been actual demand from principals for APRs to evaluate the performances of
government agents and feed into policy processes. There is potential demand for
quantitative technical evaluation studies, emerging from the Council of Ministers. The
study revealed that there are opportunities embedded in the emergent system that
would facilitate the construction of a more robust and effective evaluation demand and
supply system. Thus, there is more of a latent demand for a variety of forms of
evaluations to be undertaken to improve performance in the Executive and possibly in
the legislature. Civil society organisations such as PANE have demonstrated actual
demand for evaluation through its implementation of citizen report cards.
95. It is reported that the HPR is becoming more concerned with M&E. Recently members of
various standing committee increased the intensity of M&E on government activities
and undertook intensive field visits which has never been the case before. However,
given the absence of a strong opposition and the low levels of active engagement, the
space for evaluations for oversight remains limited. It will take time for legislators to
recognise the value of seeking alternative voices for the exercise of oversight and hence
for there to be recognition of the value of independent studies. The various standing
committees of the Parliament are potential users of evaluation and this appears to be a
source of latent demand.
96. Latent and, to some extent actual, demand for evaluation is located in the Executive. It is
reported that the Council of Ministers have expressed a concern that the APRs do not
provide details on the impact of interventions and programmes. This coupled with the
appointment of a State Minister of M&E suggest latent demand. It also establishes a
space for encouraging a more open orientation to civil society led evaluative exercises.
In this context support for a limited number of evaluations could provide a starting point
for development of the field. Evaluations completed through sector working groups
could be fed into the system through biannual high-level forum meeting and quarterly
sector strategy working group meetings.
97. Civil society can act in the provision of, demanding for, and supply of evaluations. It is
observed that there has been actual demand for and supply of evaluation. Civil society
organisations actively engaged in research initiatives, including community based
evaluative exercises, in order to engage in advocacy work on specific policy areas. The
potential for this is, however, constrained by legislation relating to the registration and
funding of NGOs.
98.Table 4 shows there is DP support for developing the GoE’s capacity to work with
evaluative information. DPs can help to commission evaluations and technically support
the processes through donor government dialogue in high level and sector forums.
Nearly all DPs are instituting M&E in their projects and programmes and establishing
mechanisms for incorporating programme beneficiaries in evaluation related technical
steering committees. Evaluation studies provide an opening for government policy
reflections. The commitment of MoFED to enhance its AMP database provides an
opportunity for an appreciative shift in this area. Linking the efforts to the DAG
31
commitment to the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and UNDP efforts towards
strengthening national capacities to formulate evidence-based policies and strategies, is
likely to assist in deepening ownership over evaluations.
4.2 Evaluation
99. M&E has permeated the development discourse of the government despite a conflation
of monitoring with evaluation. Operational commitment is reflected in government
support for five-year plan reviews and RBM. Furthermore, government is working with
DPs on enhancing the evaluation system. The commitments to CSA and to enhancing
capacity in MoFED are further opportunities for enhancing the role of internally driven
and owned evaluation exercises.
100. MoFED stands at the centre of evidence based policy making as an overarching
department with the authority to facilitate the link between demand and supply. MoFED
has a five-year M&E action plan, supported by DPs, to monitor input, process and output
indicators across levels of government. However, the evaluation capacity of the DPRD of
MoFED is very limited so UNICEF is planning to build the capacity of the unit. The
Directorate has been managing poverty reduction strategy evaluations and undertaking
poverty analysis every five years based on household surveys. These are produced by
consultants inside and outside the country. This is an established and institutionalised
demand for evaluations that will continue even without donor support.
101. The GoE has limited capacity to commission and manage evaluation. Some
interviewees report that even capacity for the generation of ToRs for M&E exercise is
limited. It is difficult to see how government can overcome this challenge, given the very
low salaries of senior civil servants. There is also limited supply from within the country.
102. CSA undertakes annual and periodical surveys. The most important for evaluative
studies are the four rounds of household surveys. These are sufficient to undertake
poverty analysis and some health focused evaluative research. The limitation of these
surveys is the absence of panel data that tracks the same household at different times.
The emerging data and statistics culture is, however, promising for making quality and
adequate data available for evaluative research. The GoE has prepared a sound and
practical national statistical development plan, strongly grounded in the desire to
improve the quality of decision making through the use of evidence. The CSA has issued
a five year NSDS.
103. Building on the energy within CSA provides an opportunity to enhance data collation
and ensure wider distribution for analysis. This would overcome the challenge that many
analysts and evaluators face in doing evidence based analysis. The CSA has
demonstrated a commitment to enhancing the quality of data and minimising data
inconsistencies by developing a standard format to collect and monitor data from
ministries and agencies. The first rounds of Data Quality Assessments were conducted in
the education and rural roads sectors with support from the PBS programme (AfDB).
This commitment provides an opportunity to facilitate deeper cooperation between DPs
on building data sources that would feed into independently commissioned evaluations.
4.3 Producers
32
104. There is limited capacity and fragmentation on the supply side. Most impact
evaluations are carried out by international evaluators. In some cases government is not
happy with some evaluation findings and there is a problem with buy-in.
105. Whilst the funding environment is constraining for associations, they provide an
important opportunity for enhancing the level of research undertaken in the country
and for the organisation of policy related interactions. The EEA has demonstrated that it
has the capacity for policy level engagements and can be of value to government. It has
already acted on developing an MSc degree that focuses on impact evaluations.
However, the space for mobilising resources for the EEA and other associations is limited
and would require a shift in government policy to facilitate capacity development
opportunities. Some encouragement of changes to national regulations governing the
mobilisation of resources on the part of such associations would, over the long-term, be
of benefit to government and the wider society.
106. The university sector in Ethiopia has very little budget for research. Most research
are supported by donors. The problem with this is the link with demands from
government. There are attempts to link research with the development plans of the
country though the output remains to be seen. The recent collaboration between Addis
Ababa University and MoFED is a breakthrough for the university-government
relationship for tailored training and demand driven research. This a very good
opportunity that should be taken to regional states and regional universities to look at
how research incentives could be better aligned to help universities connect to policy.
33
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APPENDIX A: INTERVIEW LIST
No Name Position Organisation
1 Mr. Admit Zerihun Senior Macroeconomist African Development Bank- Ethiopia
Country Office
2 Dirk Wagener RBM Manager UNDP-Ethiopia Country Office
3 Chrysantus Ayangafac Governance UNDP-Ethiopia Country Office
4 Sehen Bekele Governance UNDP-Ethiopia Country Office
5 Atnafu Woldegebriel Governance UNDP-Ethiopia Country Office
6 Ayele Nugussie UNDP-Ethiopia Country Office
7 Dr. Rogers Pearson Chief, Research,
Evaluation, Policy and
Monitoring
UNICEF-Ethiopia Country Office
8 Workie Mitiku Deputy Chief of Party Abt Asst. HCFR
9 Mr. Kenney Osborne Senior Statistics Adviser &
Head, Corporate
Effectiveness Team
DFID-Ethiopia Country Office
10 Mr. Wondimsyamregn
Mekasha
M & E Specialist WB-PBS Secretariat
11 Dr. Alemayehu Seyoum IFPRI-Ethiopia Country Office
12 Dr. Assefa Admassie Director, EEPRI Ethiopian Economics
Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy
Research Institute (EEA/EEPRI)
13 Dr. Fenta Mandefro Associate Dean for
research and technology
transfer, FBE
Addis Ababa University, Faculty of
Business and Economics (AAU/FBE)
14 Mr. Fasika
Kelemework
President of EEvA and
M&E Manager EU
Ethiopian Evaluation Association
15 Mr. Eshetu Bekele Executive Director Poverty Action Network of Ethiopia
16 Mr. Biratu Yigezu Deputy Director General,
Statistical Surveys &
Census
Central Statistics Agency (CSA)
17 Mr. Alemayehu
G/Tsadik
Acting Deputy Director
General , National
Statistics System
Coordination & Operation
Central Statistics Agency (CSA)
18 Mr. Temesgen
Walelign
Director, Development
Planning and Research
Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
19 Admasu Nebebe Director, UN Agencies and
Regional Economic
Cooperation Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
20 Yonas Getahun Expert, UN Agencies and
Regional Economic
Cooperation Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
21 Dawit Ayele Expert, UN Agencies and
Regional Economic
Cooperation Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
22 Fiseha Abera Director, International
Finance Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
23 Dereje Girma Senior expert, Bilateral
Cooperation Directorate
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
37
No Name Position Organisation
24 Mr. Adugna Nemera Capacity Development
Officer
Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development (MoFED)
25 Mr. Samuel Abiyu Team leader, Planning
and Programme
Directorate
Ministry of Agriculture (MoA)
26 Mr. Daniel Dangiso Director, Policy Planning
Directorate
Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE)
Date
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