Theory of Change: A Blueprint for Evaluation

Submitted by jyuan@worldbank.org on Tue, 04/12/2016 - 17:55
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Presentation Overview

  • Introduction to Theory of Change
  • Building a Theory of Change
  • Why is Theory of Change Important?
  • Testing competing Theories of Change

 

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Theory of Change
1. Theory of Change: A Blueprint for Evaluation
2. Presentation Overview  Introduction to Theory of Change  Building a Theory of Change  Why is Theory of Change Important?  Testing competing Theories of Change
3. Presentation Overview  Introduction to Theory of Change  Building a Theory of Change  Why is Theory of Change Important?  Testing competing Theories of Change
4. Theory of Change (ToC)  Definition • Theory of change is an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means in a particular context, sector, and/or group of people.  ToC thinking • Structured way of thinking about change and impact organizations would like to achieve • Integrated approach to programme design, implementation, M+E, and communication
5. Causal Hypothesis Q: How do I expect results to be achieved? A: If [inputs] and [activities] produce [outputs] this should lead to [outcomes] which will ultimately contribute to [goal].
6. Presentation Overview  Introduction to Theory of Change  Building a Theory of Change  Why is Theory of Change Important?  Testing competing Theories of Change
7. Theory of Change: Main Questions  What is the programme?  What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve?  What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?  What assumptions are associated with each link in the causal chain?  How can we measure outcomes?
8. What is the Programme?  Programme Design  Relevance  Target Audience  Social and Political Content  Potential Threats and Challenges
9. Theory of Change: Define the Programme Incentives for Immunization Immunization Camps
10. I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I O N Theory of Change: Define the Outcomes Incentives for Immunization Immunization Camps
11. I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I O N Theory of Change: Intermediate Steps Incentives for Immunization Parents bring children to the camps Immunization Camps
12. I N C R E A S E D I M M U N I Z A T I O N Theory of Change: Assumptions Incentives for Immunization Parents bring children to the camps Immunization Camps Camp provides immunizations Parents value incentives Parents trust camps Incentives paid regularly
13. ToC: School-Based Malaria Intervention Malaria Intervention Assumptions Assumptions Children adhere to full med regime Higher Test Scores Test accurately measures knowledge Increased School Attendance Reduced Clinical Attacks Reduced Asymptomatic Parasitemia Reduced Anemia Improved Cognition Increased Concentratio n I N C R E A S E D K N O W L E D G E
14. Theory of Change Levels Inputs/ Programme Activities Outputs Intermediate outcomes Goal What we do as a part of the programme - deliver, teach, offer loans, etc. What are the resources used –funds, staff, equipment, curriculum, all materials. Tangible products or services produced as a result of the activities - usually can be counted. Short-term behavioral changes that result from the outputs - preventive health habits, usage of tablets. Long-term changes that result from outcomes – the result of the programme.
15. Good indicators  Quantitative and qualitative  Standard of comparison (i.e. baseline v. endline, defining “high-quality,” etc.)  SMART • Specific - Ask (answer) one question at a time • Measurable - Quantifiable, accurate, unbiased, sensitive • Achievable - Is this impact realistic? Are the goals attainable? • Relevant - Is this the most relevant programme indicator given the needs • Time-bound - Has boundaries. When’s the deadline?
16. Good Indicators  Does the definition adequately describe our concept?  Can the variable be easily measured?  Can we collect data to measure the variable?
17. Increased Immunization Coverage  Brainstorm in groups: • Does the definition adequately describe our concept? • Can the variable be easily measured? • Can we collect data to measure the variable?
18. Log Frame Objectives Hierarchy Indicators Sources of Verification Assumptions / Threats Impact (Goal/ Overall objective) Increased immunization Immunization rates Household survey Adequate vaccine supply, parents do not have second thoughts Outcome (Project Objective) Parents attend the immunization camps repeatedly Follow-up attendance Household survey; Immunizatio n card Parents have the time to come Outputs Immunization camps are reliably open; Incentives are delivered Number of kg bags delivered; Camp schedules Random audits; Camp administrativ e data Nurses/assistants will show up to camp and give out incentives properly Inputs (Activities) Camps + incentives are established Camps are built, functional Random audits of camps Sufficient materials, funding, manpower Needs assessment Impact evaluation Process evaluation
19. What is the best time to create a theory of change? A. Before commencing an evaluation B. Before data analysis C. During the programme design D. Before data collection 25% 25% 25% 25% Before data analysis During the programme ... Before commencing an ... Before data collection
20. Presentation Overview  Introduction to Theory of Change  Building a Theory of Change  Why is Theory of Change Important?  Testing competing Theories of Change
21. Discussion WHY IS THEORY OF CHANGE IMPORTANT?
22. Solving the Black Box Problem Low immunization rates Needs Assessment Intervention Intervention design/Inputs Final Black Box No increase in full immunization outcome
23. Identifying Theory Failure vs. Implementation Failure Successful intervention Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Goal Implementation failure Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Goal Theory failure Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Goal
24. Why is Theory of Change Important For evaluators, reminds us What is it? Example Components Assumptions Conclusion to consider process For programmers, it helps us be results oriented
25. What is the Main Criticism of Theory of Change? A. Over-simplify the programme B. Long-term effects not considered C. Unintended consequences not considered D. Does not consider that 25% 25% 25% 25% Over-simplify the prog... programme to outcomes is not uni-directional Unintended consequenc.. Long-term effects not co... Does not consider that p...
26. Presentation Overview  Introduction to Theory of Change  Building a Theory of Change  Why is Theory of Change Important?  Testing competing Theories of Change
27. Testing Competing Theories of Change  Different disciplines have different theories • Public Health • Education • Economics • Anthropology • Sociology • Political Science
28. Testing Competing Theories of Change Toilets in Schools Children missing school due to waterborne disease Children use toilets Increased School Attendance Less waterborne disease Girls feel more comfortable coming to school Female dropout rate decreases Girls missing school due to lack of toilets Girls use toilets
29. Theory of Change: Main Questions  What is the programme?  What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve?  What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?  What assumptions are associated with each link in the causal chain?  How can we measure outcomes?
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